Ketsana's aftermath

Hopefully  by now you have read all the news and video footages of the recent flooding in metropolitan Manila and norther Luzon provinces. For comparison, the rainfall amount in 12 hours was a lot more (measured in mm and not in inches) than what we experienced with Katrina. I have not kept up with the death toll, and scores of people missing. The financial costs of this calamity is still to be determined. We do have to count our blessings in light of the recent earthquake, more lives lost in the recent massive earthquake in Sumatra (that just occurred this week, and flooding in American Samoa).

The easy part is finger pointing and doing the blame game. The following questions do need to be answered:

1. What happened to the study done by Urban Planner Palafox regarding the risks of flooding (I will get the reference page on this study, this was done years ago)?
2. How much of the damaged settlements, e.g., parts of Marikina Valley, or population actually built and settled in 20, 50, or 100-year floodplains?
3. Where was the Disaster Relief and Emergency Response System? Why is there no FEMA-like agency?
4. Why haven't local government units organized even volunteer or non government associations to organize Disaster Preparedness and Local Emergency Response Teams?
5. How much of the flooding caused, or indirectly caused by garbage-choke rivers and estuaries?
6. Are any of the private developments, or buildings insured when these are built on flood plains? Where did they purchase insurance, or were these properties insured, who insured them?

All of these questions are classic PMBOK questions and key project management input variables, or process groups:

• Risk management,
• Proper project planning,
• Risk mitigation,
• Project implementation,
• Budgeting,
• Disaster preparedness, and 
• Disaster response and recovery.

What project are you working on? What are the potential risks? What are the payoffs? Are you prepared for a major catastrophe? What are your risk mitigation plans, and disaster response systems? Easy to ask, very difficult to implement.

Fishing and being seasick

Today being my birthday, I was inundated with greetings (both on the Wall and personal messages via e-mail) on Facebook. (Thanks to the calendar reminder on Facebook, even your 2nd grade classmate remembered to greet me on my birthday.) The common (courteous) question I was asked apart from the greeting, "what kind of fun stuff did you do today?" And I tell the entire story.

This was a trip that had long been planned by my Sales Director, won from a fund raising auction at World Relief back in spring of this year. Due to schedule conflicts and marine forecast, the fishing trip had to be re scheduled a couple of times. Then the day finally came. We are going fishing at 7 am from Winthrop Harbor North Point Marina, on a Saturday. Woke up at 4 am, got out at past 5 am and made the trek from Warrenville to Winthrop Harbor, Illinois. While waiting for someone else, my Sales Director asked me, "so, Bobby, do you ever have problems with sea sickness?" "Bill, I grew up in the Philippines, of course not!" I have been paddling on canoes on mild rivers, rode in canoes with outriggers in Mindanao Sea, have taken a passenger (overnight) cruise ship from Manila back to Butuan, a ferry from Playa del Carmen to Cozumel--of course I have never had problems with sea sickness. (I did remember Captain mention that the waves farther out would be far better than the waves' height further inland.) So I thought I hope we catch Salmon and Trout today, lots and lots of them.

One and half hour after venturing out, and having half eaten a bagel with lox and cream cheese, I started feeling sick. Not wanting to ruin the trip for everyone, I did my best not to lose my breakfast. And the three and a half foot waves felt like ten foot (or more waves, like the Perfect Storm, or it felt like it for me), and this went on for four hours. When the captain finally saw me puking three times, he said "let's head back in" and started to pull the poles. A ruined trip and no Salmon caught. Disappointing, and I felt bad for both Bill and Paul. And the captain has to clean the sides of his boat.

Not sure if it was over confidence or oversight on my part about the risks involved with this trip, the Dramamine might have help prevent nausea and motion sickness. I took two tablets after attempting to reel in the line (thinking we had caught something about two hours into the trip). Pretty obvious it was too late. Lesson learned: what possible risks could come up with a trip or a project. Identify it, take steps to mitigate it, or plain avoid it. With the marine forecast of 3.5 and less than 5 foot waves, it was safe to venture out and go fishing. But it is not for the faint of stomach.

shopping for fresh fruits and vegetables at Jenny's Fruit Stand

My wife and I spent last weekend or Labor Day weekend in Sawyer Michigan. Although I have lived here in the states for almost 20 years now, I cannot help but notice the differences between how "production" (collective term) works between here and the Philippines. (I wanted to post photos of my wife shopping at the fruit stand but I lost those digital photos. That is a whole different story.)

This fruit stand was not manned, sat in a corner of a street, in a private property. It had a wooden cash box (i.e., cash and check payment only), chained to the structure. It had three security cameras (more than likely with motion detector), one of which had a short antenna (I can only imagine it works off 802.11 protocol). I noticed that the power adaptors were plugged to an outlet and did not seem secure (someone can just unplug them, if someone really intended to abscond the fruits, vegetables, organic honey, and the cash box). On a white board, the following works were scribed: "Smile, you are on candid camera. Thou shall not steal."

Where is this all leading to? What I can conclude are the following. Any production business process that can be automated or outsourced, whereby there is significant cost savings to labor cost--such solution needs to be examined and implemented. A lot of our economic "transaction" is based on honesty. (A fudged resume can be discovered. A dishonest time sheet will be caught. A dishonest tax return will be audited. A substandard part replacement discovered. This is very true in the US. Sadly, I cannot speak the same about the Philippines. It may be different now.) Thus, such automation and BPO (business process outsourcing) ought not to be ruled out when trying to cut production cost. Then again, this might be stating what is now too obvious.

US/Boeing versus Airbus/European Union

There is not much news happening (not earth shaking at least) that I wanted to blog on but the following article prior to the long Labor Day weekend caught my eye. (Well, the forest fires in Los Angeles is being contained, and it is being investigated both as an arson and as a homicide in light of two firefighters' death.) Ever since Boeing moved their corporate office to Chicago, news related to Boeing hits the Chicago Trib and becomes easier to follow. In light of the economic meltdown, large drop in corporate travel (airlines reportedly losing billions in 1st half of 09), the competition on new plane orders becomes more heated between Airbus and Boeing (along with Canadian, Brazilian, Chinese and Russian plane manufacturers intent on breaking up the monopoly by the Big 2).

The following is the recent development on this on-going battle. Excerpted from the Chicago Tribune article today:

"The United States and Chicago-based Boeing Co. scored the first victory in a lengthy trade conflict Friday when the World Trade Organization found that the European Union had provided illegal aircraft subsidies to Airbus SAS.

But the extent of their win, like much else in this clash, was disputed. The only certainty is that the 5-year-old imbroglio, already one of the longest and costliest on record, is far from over, trade experts cautioned."

I had taken the Micro Economics class at VA TECH years ago, and I still do remember the following "ideal." Government subsidies are bad, since it interferes with free market forces. It does not level the playing field for all players. It tips the playing field in favor of another. I will not debate the merits of the European Union's subsidies, which part is legal or not (70 % has been ruled by the World Trade Organization as not illegal).

What I have come to the conclusion are the following. I find it interesting that the US is taking this issue with Airbus at WTO, siding with Boeing. This makes me ask the following questions, what about the farm subsidies to US farmers? What about TARP? What about the billions in Stimulus money to state and local governments? Is this tinkering with market economics? Where is the consistency in government policy related to government subsidies, primarily to US farmers. One may argue these are very different times, and call for very different solutions to different problems. Is the US government right in taking Boeing's case to WTO? In this case, I think so.

Chicago's bid for 2016 Olympics

An interesting development just transpired in Chicago's bid for 2016 Olympics. Mayor Daley had been reluctant to sign the contract with IOC. This provisioned that the host city will have full ownership of financial cost of sponsoring the summer Olympics. China had spent 13 bllion Yuan or close to $2B to finance the recent 08 Beijing Olympics.

AON is willing to underwrite the insurance to cover $500 million in the event the city's cost exceeds revenues accrued from hosting the games. Mayor Daley's was reluctant to stick the cost of the games to Chicago taxpayers. I am wondering however what is the premium or cost of this insurance policy? AON's policy will not be pro bono, it will come at a cost. However, this is a win/win situation for the city and 2016 bid team. The caveat is, how much policy is enough. The statisticians, demographers, consultants and forecasters better be accurate on their pessimistic, most likely, and optimistic forecasts, i.e., to ensure some semblance of accuracy on their sufficiency of insurance amount.

Not foreign to performance bonds and other insurance policies for vendors and contractors, this definitely is a development in the right direction for the city to move forward with the bid. Now if they can now convice all Chicago Aldermen, that the city taxpayers will not pay $1 in case the 2016 Olympics bleeds red ink, it is "all good."

CIT 1122 Routing Protocols

Yesterday was day #1 (or night #1) that is for the next class module leading to CCNA certification. I am taking this class at College of DuPage in Glen Ellyn, IL. This is 2nd of four classes--which hopefully will provide me the necessary body of knowledge and lab exercises to pass the Cert test. (The primary reason I am taking this is to gain some continuing education credits to maintain my PMP certification with PMI.org.)

The intent as well is to enable me to challenge and validate,
a) statements of work,
b) field QC for any IP-based hardware deployment,
c) validate Technical Support documentation,
d) and have a general understanding of Networking (TCP/IP) protocols.

Nonetheless, I am amazed at the caliber of students who have flocked back to school. (One was an electrical engineer in my cit 1121 class this past summer.) Primary reason is to "recession-proof" one's career. A majority of people have gone back to get their undergraduate, graduate or even post graduate degrees while we try to ride out this recession. Suffice to say that there will be a lot of (educated derelicts like me) very qualified, skilled, highly educated work force coming out of this recession.

Continental Express Flight 2816

I love following news about travel since I love traveling myself. I love learning new culture, different cuisines, and mostly I love discovering the history of a locale invariably tied to its Architectural style as well.

This incident occurred not too long ago. I would like to make this short and sweet since much has been written about this incident. Regardless that the Continental Regional Jet (operated by a Continental subsidiary or a "contractor" for lack of a better term) was not truly operated by Continental, or who is fully responsible for what transpired in stranding of flight 2816 in Rochester MN, I am amazed that common sense is thrown out the window all in the name of following protocol.

Some excerpts from msnbc.com: ..Airport manager Steve Leqve, however, insists passengers could have come into the airport at anytime. “The decision for that airplane to stay out on that ramp was strictly Continental’s dispatch’s,” he told reporters. “I can't explain why they made the decision to stay on the tarmac. If it was an airport manager’s decision, those people would not have sat on that plane longer than two hours.”

Which leads me to the following conclusion. Rules and protocols are formulated, and are in place to be followed by all "stakeholders." However, when comfort of "customers" are in jeopardy, I believe it was incumbent upon the dispatcher to allow the passengers to disembark from the plane and allow them to enter the airport. Did the dispatcher check on TSA rules about allowing the passengers in the airport since TSA agents had been gone for the night? That question remains to be answered. In sum, I believe customers always come first. Any decision made at any level, when impacting customers--can run counter to common practice or protocol. Those decisions have to be made, and if counter to some protocol--some exceptions have to be made. In the name of the customer.

NYT report: more homeowners being pushed to foreclosure

I think it is entirely wrong for cities and taxing districts to turn over unpaid or property taxes in arrears to third party collection agencies. These agencies obviously turn around and mark up or charge exorbitant surcharges (charging up to 18% interest) to financially strapped homeowners. From a larger perspective, it is shortsighted to gain (in the short term) the direly needed tax revenues. When more homes fall into foreclosures exacerbated by this flawed process, neighborhoods and homes go to disrepair, property values fall, and the vicious cycle becomes more widespread.

Dow closing today

So the market closed almost 200 points down today, reportedly the biggest pullback since a 50 % gain from March this year. The following is an excerpt on msnbc.com news today: "The biggest drag on spending is the high level of unemployment. Almost 7 million workers have lost their paychecks since the recession began. Unemployment benefits and stimulus tax cuts have helped, but confidence in the job market remains weak. That’s one reason the savings rate has jumped. Households are saving for a rainy day and trying to restore wealth lost to the housing market collapsed." Considering that 2/3rd (this is the last ratio I recall) of the US economy is domestic consumption, the increase in savings by US households has been sort of a double-edged sword effect on the US economy. If the US consumers are digging in (including us, although we do have a small home improvement project we are trying to finish, more on that later) and not spending money, then domestic consumption will stay low and the vicious cycle perpetuates. (I read as well that the world market is down as well regardless that Japan's GDP reportedly rose 3.7 this past quarter.) I try to be optimistic but I am not seeing the volume of projects come in comparable to previous years.

Update to this site

Starting today, I will be blogging about different aspects of our lives and not solely in project management. I will attempt to focus on technology that improve our quality of lift, but I may blog as well on some funny aspects or nuances I observe. I came across this article that Facebook may expand to other areas where it may compete with other big rivals, e.g., paypal and a rival of twitter. When something successful expands and tries to be a be-all and end-all solution to peoples' lives (the premise being that a lot of people spend hours on Facebook), this can be the start of a business enterprise' undoing. We do not have to look too far by looking at GM's business model. They had so many product lines and different (or seemingly different) brand names that consumers as a whole gets confused on what an enterprise is really selling. I am a big fan of Facebook. I do hope they do not loose focus on the premise why Facebook became hugely successful, starting from college campuses to a global phenomenon (including older age groups beyond college students).

http://tinyurl.com/kvxhs3

Taguibo Bridge, Agusan, Philippines

This is a bridge built by Alta Construction years ago by my dad Alfredo Taruc. We have photos of this bridge, including the inaguration ceremony by Department of Public Works and Highways at my dad's home office. I am amazed by the life span of this bridge--this still currently in use today. However, it is apparent (when I visited in 4/07) that water level is lower compared to when the bridge was under construction.

I am reminded that the parameters of building bridges, ERP deployment, software development or a small scale project are constant: manage scope, manage cost, and manage time line. (There is more to this obviously, from the PMBook or PMI Body of Knowledge, or project management principles.) Managing these key input variables are key to any projects' success.

CIT 1121

This is the first of four classes that I am currently taking at College of DuPage in Glen Ellyn, IL. We are on our 4th week. The rationale behind my taking this program or certificate (Certififcate in Internetworking Technologies, a CCNA Equivalency Program) is to garner continuing education PDUs with the Project Manager Professional (PMP) by Project Management Institute (pmi.org). The PMP certification is good for three years and it has to be renewed every three years, with (60) PDUs needed. Along with this credentials, it is good to get this certification given that I do not have a BS in Computer Science. Anyway, this class is now getting more complex as we go to subnetting and learning more about IPV4 and V6. More to follow on this journey.