Monday, August 17, 2009
Dow closing today
So the market closed almost 200 points down today, reportedly the biggest pullback since a 50 % gain from March this year. The following is an excerpt on msnbc.com news today: "The biggest drag on spending is the high level of unemployment. Almost 7 million workers have lost their paychecks since the recession began. Unemployment benefits and stimulus tax cuts have helped, but confidence in the job market remains weak. That’s one reason the savings rate has jumped. Households are saving for a rainy day and trying to restore wealth lost to the housing market collapsed." Considering that 2/3rd (this is the last ratio I recall) of the US economy is domestic consumption, the increase in savings by US households has been sort of a double-edged sword effect on the US economy. If the US consumers are digging in (including us, although we do have a small home improvement project we are trying to finish, more on that later) and not spending money, then domestic consumption will stay low and the vicious cycle perpetuates. (I read as well that the world market is down as well regardless that Japan's GDP reportedly rose 3.7 this past quarter.) I try to be optimistic but I am not seeing the volume of projects come in comparable to previous years.
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It is hard to understand or fathom where the next boom will come from, where wealth will be created to finance the next US and world economies' boom cycle. This current meltdown (as I understand it) was largely financed by bloated, bubble-based, inflated home prices. Most home owners took out home-equity loans (us included in our old home in Lockport) to finance home improvements, vacations and a new SUV. I thought it would be hard to sustain such pace in home price increases (in some areas at 30 % per annum) when wage hikes rarely matched the increases in home prices.
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