I am not one to join a pool for the NCAA Basketball
Tournament, nor predict who will win the national championship. You probably
are wondering what March Madness has to do with Project Management. It is this:
the process of predicting who will make it to Final Four and win the national
championship is about as much science (and art) as predicting Risks and coming
up with a Risk Management Plan in Project Management.
I don’t exactly know what input variables predictors use,
but I would imagine the following (with how little I know about basketball):
1.
Schedule strength, who the team’s opponents are
in the bracket, as they move on from one round to another,
2.
Production per player and as a team statistics,
e.g., Field Goal percentage, Free Throw percentage, blocks per game, turnovers
per game, assists per game, points off turnovers, etc.
3.
Compare team production and statistics versus
the opponent,
4.
Regular season AP or some other analyst or
analysts ranking.
I am confident there are other key statistics that pundits
will consider, but these primarily come to my mind. Similar to predicting who’ll
be in the Round of 32, Sweet 16, Elite 8, Final 4, and ultimately who’ll win
the national Championship—there is as much science as predicting varied risks
to a project or program. There is a lot that goes on to identify Risks:
1.
Briainstorming
2.
Delphi technique
3.
Checklist technique via historical information
and prior knowledge base
4.
Assumption Analysis
5.
Diagramming techniques such as Cause and Effect
Diagrams, System or Process flow charts, Influence Diagrams
6.
SWOT analysis
7.
Expert Judgment.
At the conclusion of Risk Register, this information is a
basis for a Probability and Impact matrix—as the risks impact scope or quality,
time and schedule, i.e., perform a Qualitative Risk Analysis along with a
Quantitative Risk Analysis. Quantitative Risk Analysis can be complex, as laid
out in PmBOK (4th Edition):
1.
Data Gathering and Presentation Techniques
a.
Interviewing
b.
Probability Distributions (beta or triangular distribution)
2.
Quantitative Risk Analysis and Modeling
techniques
a.
Sensitivity Analysis
b.
Expected monetary value analysis (EVM)
c.
Modeling and Simulation
3.
Expert Judgment
I won’t discuss the outputs from the Qualitative and
Quantitative Risks Analysis. Suffice to say that there is a lot of science and
statistics that can be applied to predict the impact of Risks, along with
predicting the NCAA 2012 champion. There are however (pardon the cliché in
sports) intangibles that may surprise the batter, as a curve ball is pitched.
In sports:
1.
We do not know what goes on at a half-time
break, or what the coach says.
2.
What the team captain says to the team,
3.
What personally motivates each player, during
substitutions,
4.
What coaching occurs during time outs, and
finally
5.
What fires up a team when they are 20 points
behind at the half time break.
Within a project, a lot of unknowns are taken into account,
or at least attempted to be accounted for. However, it is impossible to predict
and account for all key project inputs—along with external parameters that can
potentially impact the project or program, e.g.,
1.
Gas price or jet fuel price,
2.
Local or Governmental policies,
3.
Inclement weather,
4.
Weather-related disaster,
5.
Downturn in domestic economy,
6.
Downturn in the European Union economies, and
7.
Consumers being spooked by a failing European
economy.
In project management, Risk Analysis and Risk Management is
a must to mitigate scope, time and financial impact. In the NCAA Championship
prediction, the same analytical approach can be utilized. Experts who do this
continually can sharpen their prediction skills, and predict with more accuracy.
However, there are still intangibles that can come from a blind corner.
However, this should not preclude anyone from following a certain process or
analysis.
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